For two years in a row, the Dodgers lost the N.L.C.S. in five games to the Phillies. It's safe to say something is missing. In this blog I have clearly outlined what that something is: a top of the rotation, number one, bulldog-style, ace starting pitcher. The Dodgers decided what their playoff rotation was going to be on July 31st when they were not able to get Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. It's no surprise that the two teams that made the most significant starting pitching additions, the Yankees (C.C. Sabathia) and Phillies (Lee) have rode them deep in the postseason. Starting pitching sets the tone for a playoff game. If someone like Lee is on, then regardless if a team has a power-hitting line-up they know they'll probably have to dust off the hit and run, sacrifice bunts, stolen bases and other things they have not used while abusing inferior starters. Turning that around, if your starter is off in the first inning you get that feeling of dread because it looks like it's going to be a long night. Everyone-- the offense, bullpen and bench-- has to work even harder to get back in the game.

Dodgers' starters had an N.L.C.S. ERA of 8.72, ouch! The only game they won was when Vicente Padilla went 7 1/3, allowing only a homerun to Ryan Howard. While they were down, it was a manageable deficit as they scored two runs in the 8th for the win. The starter kept them in the game, pitched deep allowing the bullpen to dominate a smaller frame of the nine innings and the offense (and a little luck) did the rest.

Moving forward, here are the most important things the Dodgers need to do to at least get to the World Series:

1. Hit me!

The Dodgers are like a gambler in Las Vegas at a blackjack table with a face card showing. They need an ace to be a winner. The Blue Jays would love to free themselves of Halladay's $15.75 million dollar salary for 2010. The Dodgers need Halladay's ability to throw nine complete games like he did this past season. The price might have to start with Russell Martin but it does make sense. The Jays would love to market the Canadian-born Martin, and with catcher Rod Barajas becoming a free agent, he would be a younger and more talented option behind the plate.

I wouldn't be opposed to including Chad Billingsley in the deal if the Jays insist on getting a pitcher back in the deal, but I would try to send them someone else. Despite recent evidence to the contrary, I still believe in Billingsley. He might not become the ace I thought he would but he can still be, at the very least, a solid #2 in the short term with an eye toward blossoming in the long term. He has too much nasty stuff to be thrown away because of what happened this season.

Back to Barajas, he's still young enough where I would offer him a one or maybe two year contract to ease Halladay's transition to the National League, you know, give him a catcher he's familiar with. If a deal for Halladay doesn't happen, then they need to sign John Lackey. Arte Moreno might overpay to keep him away from the Dodgers but they would have to look into taking the Angels ace up the Golden State Freeway if Halladay winds up going somewhere else. Jason Schmidt will be off the books and they wouldn't be giving up prospects, just $$$. If they don't acquire one of these frontline starters then just be happy with a division title, because that's as good as it's going to get.

Here's your 2-3-4 hitters for 2010.

2. Pick a spot and stick with it.

Assuming Manny Ramirez exercises his $20 million dollar option (and of course he will), the line-up pieces will not change. Rafael Furcal will leadoff and Manny should be the clean-up hitter. After that, the Dodgers should settle on Matt Kemp in the 2-spot with Andre Ethier hitting 3rd. Kemp's combination of power and speed make him a perfect modern number two hitter. The Dodgers would have their two fastest starters at the top of the order, if Furcal makes an out then Kemp has the ability to go Rickey Henderson with a homerun or a stolen base, all leading to early runs. He also has enough bat-control to a hit and run on if Furcal is on the move. Ethier is dangerous in every way with Manny behind him. Why do you think Ethier got all of those game-winning hits? The plan for an opposing team is always not to let Manny beat you so then they have to pitch to Ethier. I love James Loney in the 5th spot because the power will eventually emerge. Loney already has a knack for driving in runs and when the pop shows up he'll become Adrian Gonzalez. After Loney, it'll depend on who's still a Dodger.

3. Don't tinker.

It may seem like I don't respect the bullpen, but I do. I just don't like to depend on them and the Dodgers did a little too much of that this season. A great bullpen is at its best when they serve as the knockout punch. Starter goes seven, set-up man handles the 8th, and the closer shuts down the 9th. This isn't going to happen every night, but the more it does happen, the more rested a bullpen will be when your starter doesn't have it and the pen has to go to work early. The bullpen is the field goal kicker of a baseball team. They only get noticed when they blow it. Hopefully, George Sherrill won't mind being a set-up man again, because if he's OK with it and everyone else in the Dodgers pen comes back, they will once again have the deepest and most dominant group of relievers in the majors.

So there it is. That doesn't read too difficult does it? They could do nothing and still win the N.L. West, but this is about becoming a champion, a World Series champion.

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The Dodgers have an uphill battle ahead of them, but it's definitely winnable. I almost wish they could just get back on the field tonight and not have a day to dwell on Monday's demoralizing loss. If they can just get the series back to L.A. then I really think there will be a Game 7. The problem then would be facing Cliff Lee who's 2-0 with an ERA of 0.74 and 20 strikeouts in 3 postseason games. Ok, we'll see about that, first things first, Game 5.

1. Keep Matt Kemp in the 2nd spot in the line-up.
I don't know why Joe Torre moved him down. I realize he was striking out but his skills are perfect for being at the top of the order. Kemp may have gotten homerun-happy when he hit one in Game 1 of the Cardinals series but his speed also helped them win Game 3 on a swing that produced a dribbler that he beat out eventually coming around to score. He needs as many chances a possible to make an impact in a game and putting him behind Rafael Furcal and ahead of Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez is exactly where he can do that. Those four are the best players the Dodgers have, why wouldn't Torre bunch them up?

2. Dodger starters have to give themselves a chance.
The Phillies have scored first in 3 of the 4 games the two teams have played. It feels like the Dodgers are constantly trying to answer back. That takes a toll. It would be nice if they take the early lead, have the starter hand the bullpen that lead and control the game through the last out. Dodgers starters ERA against the Phillies so far is 7.23. Phillies starters ERA vs the Dodgers is 2.39. Dodger starting pitching won the NLDS and is losing the NLCS.

3. Believe you can.
The Dodgers are one of the best come-from-behind teams in baseball. While that fact has only applied in the late innings now it has to expand to whole games. They need to win 3 straight games, they can win 3 straight games. It's not impossible, it's just improbable... wait, where have I heard something like that before?

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1. Fugetaboutit!
A year ago, the Phillies beat the Dodgers in the NLCS in 5 games. The Dodgers were only outscored 25-20 but it never felt like they were in control at any point with the exception of the 5 runs they scored in the first inning of Game 3. Both teams are essentially the same. Sure each team has made some roster adjustments but their core has stayed intact. All that said, the Dodgers should try to forget everything that happened last year. There's no reason to dwell on past and hopefully they won't. There shouldn't be any talk of getting revenge or evening the score or any Charles Bronson stuff. An attitude like that could only lead to trying to do things that maybe they're not capable of doing. What they can do well is good enough to keep them winning playoff games. This series, all by itself, has nothing to do with what happened last year.

2. For Starters.
Cole Hamels will start Game 1 and could pitch at least two games in this series. Hamels was 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 16 innings against the Dodgers this season. He also went the distance in Dodger Stadium June 4 on a 5-hit shutout. Hamels was the 2008 NLCS MVP winning both of his starts against the Dodgers. His career numbers verses the Dodgers, playoffs included, are 4-0, 1.63 ERA, 39 strikeouts in 44 innings in six starts. There were questions about how Cliff Lee could handle the pressure of the postseason. In two starts against the Rockies, Lee notched a complete game win in his first start then put up 7 1/3 in his second outing. It adds up to a 1.10 ERA in 16 1/3 playoff innings. Kershaw was 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA against the Phils this season and he's 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA against them in his career. Wolf split his two decisions against the Phillies this season but put a 5.11 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. We'll see if these numbers are just numbers and are no reflection of what Kershaw and Wolf are capable of right now. However, starting pitching will win this series. The team that gets it will be the National League champion. In last year's NLCS, the Dodgers bullpen had a 2.07 ERA but it was useless because their starters had a 6.75 ERA. Against the Cardinals last week, the Dodgers starter's ERA was 2.08. It's the reason they beat them. Starting pitching wins championships, it's not hard to understand.

3. Stay Focused.
I know that ballplayers will always publicly say they only take things one game at a time. They claim they never look ahead and as a fan that's what I want to hear. I don't always buy that, though. They're people just like everyone else. How could the Dodgers not think about being in the World Series against either the Yankees or Angels? Either way, it would be incredible. Dodgers vs. Yankees would add another chapter to the greatest championship rivalry in sports. Dodgers-Yankees spans across different eras and generations and there is nothing like it sports. A Freeway World Series has never happened in Los Angeles. The two teams are now more than geographical rivals but since the Angels have added Los Angeles to their name a potential Fall Classic between the two would have an incredible impact for the winner for many years to come. As cool as either team would be as a World Series opponent for the Dodgers, they have to stay zeroed in on the Phillies or for the second year in a row they could be watching the rest of the postseason from home.

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Rafael Furcal and Andre Ethier combined with Manny Ramirez to hit .432 in the series.

1. Joe Torre's best move of the series was putting Matt Kemp second in the line-up. While he only had two hits in the three games he definitely made the most of them. The first hit was the 2-run homerun that gave the Dodgers a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the first in Game 1, a lead they would not give up despite a shaky outing from Randy Wolf. The other hit was a weak grounder to short where he used his speed to not only get to first but eventually score from first on a double by Manny Ramirez. Both hits came in the first inning and set a tone for each game that led to the sweep. Kemp needs get as many at-bats as possible so he use his amazing physical gifts and the earlier he gets to use them the more dangerous he becomes.

2. It's always about the starters and this series was no different. Dodgers' starters had an ERA of 2.08 against the Cardinals while St. Louis starters posted a 4.76 mark vs. L.A. I didn't think the Dodgers had the kind of starting pitching to keep them in games or hand over leads to their great bullpen. Now regardless of which team they'll play in the NLCS, I'd open with Clayton Kershaw and follow him with Vicente Padilla in Game 2. The Dodgers can go to the World Series with performances like they got out of those two. Remember in last year's NLCS against the Phillies, Dodgers starters had an ERA of 6.75, their relievers 2.08 as they got beat in five games. If they do that again, it won't matter how good their bullpe n is.

3. Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez hit a combined .432 against the Cardinals. All that combined with Kemp's opportunistic offense means the Dodgers can put consistent pressure on any pitching staff. If the first 4 hitters of a playoff team's line-up can be in that kind of a groove they will be tough to beat and the Dodgers were. In fact, they weren't beat at least not yet anyway.

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Jeff Roberson - AP Photo

1. Ignore the Facts
The numbers are not on the Dodgers side. They lost five of seven against the Cardinals this season. In fact, since the start of the 2004 season including the playoffs, the Dodgers have lost 30 of the last 42 games they've played against the Cardinals. The Cardinals beat the Dodgers in the 1985 and 2004 postseasons, the only two times they have met in October. Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pinero were a combined 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in five starts against the Dodgers. They were outscored 31-19 by the Cardinals offense. Carpenter is 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA in the postseason. Wainwright has thrown 9 2/3 scoreless playoff innings in his career. Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw will be making the first playoff appearances of their careers. Vegas has made the Cardinals the favorite in this series. The Dodgers will be asked about of all of these things leading up to the first game and reminded of all of those facts if they lose. They have to believe that even though they just lost 2 of 3 to STL at home less than two months ago it is all firmly in the past and has no bearing on this series in any way.

2. Run
Yadier Molina is the best defensive catcher in the game. He controls an opposing team's running game better than anyone else. So what? The Dodgers need to challenge him. Why should they take running out of their scoring options? Considering how inconsistent the bats have been they need to have every weapon available and use it. Molina has intimidated managers and base-stealers so much that no one wants to even try to run on him anymore. It appears that Rafael Furcal's back is holding up so he should run as often as possible and Juan Pierre needs to play the Dave Roberts role of 2004 as the designated base stealer. One stolen base can change a game and lead to a series win, just ask the Boston Red Sox.

3. Challenge Him (when you can)
Albert Pujols is the most dangerous and dominant offensive force in game. Whether teams admit or not, they think about him even when his next at-bat is a couple of innings away. Dodger Stadium, however, is still a pitcher's park and lately has been a Pujols-stopper. In the last four seasons, Pujols is hitting .233 with two homeruns in 43 Chavez Ravine at-bats. The Dodgers will be at home for at least the first two games so why not take advantage if for whatever reason your ballpark can help you? Pitching around him with Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick and Mark DeRosa behind him is dangerous because he scores runs almost as well as he drives them in.

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